Amid jitters that high levels of unemployment may force a double dip recession, the IMF warned the slow US recovery would continue and that debt problems loomed.

The Obama administration is overestimating U.S. economic growth and needs to reduce its budget deficit far more aggressively, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday in a report that targeted Social Security, the home mortgage interest deduction and other politically sensitive policies as ripe for cutting.

“The central challenge is to develop a credible fiscal strategy to ensure that public debt is put– and is seen to be put–on a sustainable path without putting the recovery in jeopardy,” an IMF report said.

And in its first-ever analysis of the U.S. financial sector, the agency warned that the recovery and seeming health of the banking industry may be illusory, threatened by an expected wave of defaults on commercial real estate loans and possibly in need of another large injection of capital. Small- and medium-size firms, clustered on the West Coast and in the South, are at particular risk from what may be a trillion dollars worth of bad loans for offices and other commercial buildings, IMF officials said in a briefing.

Though the economic recovery in the United States “has become increasingly well established . . . the risks are tilted to the downside,” said David Robinson, deputy director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere department. Recent data “have increased those downside risks.”

The assessment is in line with growing concern among members of the U.S. Federal Reserve and elsewhere that the U.S. recovery is losing steam. The IMF said recent data–whether the slow advance of hiring, a laggard home market, or a weak stock market–are not enough in themselves to downgrade its forecasts for U.S. growth, which it predicts will be 3.3 percent this year and 2.9 percent next year.

But it also notes that those forecasts are lower than those used in the Obama administration’s plan to cut the U.S. budget deficit in half by 2013 and stabilize overall U.S. debt by 2015.

President Barack Obama has plowed nearly a trillion dollars into the economy to spur economic growth, exploding the US deficit to a level that many believe is unsustainable.

While the United States has already taken steps to freeze spending, the IMF said the Obama Administration may need to increase taxes to hit its deficit reduction targets.

With the November midterm elections looming, Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address that it was important that Congress act swiftly to ensure that the voices of the American people aren’t drowned out by deep-pocketed corporations and other special interests.

President Barack Obama on Saturday pressed Congress for swift action on measures to restrict political advertising by corporations and labor unions, saying that “no less than the integrity of our democracy” is at stake.

Legislation introduced in Congress this week would require that corporations and unions identify themselves in political ads they pay for and that the chief executive or other top official state that “I approve this message.”

The measures are in response to a 5-4 Supreme Court ruling in January that upheld the First Amendment rights of these groups to spend money on campaign ads, thus enhancing their ability to influence federal elections.

The president said the proposals would give voters the important information they need to evaluate the claims in ads paid for by “shadowy campaign committees,” corporations and special interests. He said he would fight to see them become law.

“Now, of course, every organization has every right in this country to make their voices heard,” Obama said. “But the American people also have the right to know when some group like ‘Citizens for a Better Future’ is actually funded entirely by ‘Corporations for Weaker Oversight.”‘

The proposals also would also bar foreign-controlled corporations and government contractors from spending money on U.S. elections and prohibit political spending by companies that accepted government bailout money. Corporations and unions also must disclose campaign-related spending on their websites and report such spending to shareholders and members.

The Senate’s Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, long an ardent opponent of putting limits on campaign spending, criticized the bills as being more about election advantage than transparency, accountability or good government. He noted that two of the Democratic sponsors, Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York and Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, led the effort to elect Democrats to Congress.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce also has promised to fight attempts to “muzzle or demonize” independent voices in the electoral process.

The measures are unlikely to become law without a fight.

The space shuttle lit up the night sky of Cape Canaveral in the early morning hours on Monday, sending seven astronauts on their way to the International Space Station.

Three women are riding aboard Discovery. A fourth is already at the space station. She arrived Sunday, courtesy of the Russians. That sets a record for the most women flying on spacecraft at the same time.

This was NASA’s last scheduled shuttle launch in darkness. Only three missions remain after this one.

Discovery’s astronauts waved and gave thumbs-up as they headed to the launch pad early Monday for a pre-dawn launch to the International Space Station, one of the last few shuttle flights.

Discovery was scheduled to blast off at 6:21 a.m., nearly an hour before sunrise. The shuttle and its crew of seven will deliver spare parts and science experiments to the nearly completed space station.

There were screams of excitement for Japanese astronaut Naoko Yamazaki, set to become the second woman from her country to soar into space. “Get back, get back!” someone shouted as Yamazaki ventured too close to the picture-taking crowd.

Commander Alan Poindexter paused at the base of Discovery to take pictures of his crew. Before boarding the shuttle, he held up a handwritten sign telling his wife and two sons, “I love you! See you soon.”

Forecasters put the odds of good weather for the launch at 80 percent. Fog was the lone concern.

Fueling was delayed a little Sunday because of a voltage spike in one of Discovery’s fuel cells. Engineers suspected the brief surge was related to the cockpit lights, and said it posed no problem for liftoff.

The mission is one of four remaining shuttle flights. NASA plans to retire the fleet this fall.

Once that happens, the space station will rely exclusively on other countries’ vessels for crews and supplies. Three new residents arrived Sunday — one American and two Russians. They wished everyone a happy Easter after their Russian spacecraft docked.

The station’s population will temporarily swell from six to 13 when Discovery arrives. Four will be women, the most ever in space at once. And two of the astronauts will be Japanese—another first. Scores of journalists and space officials from Japan descended on the launch site to witness the big event. Area roads also were jammed with post-Easter vacationers and spring breakers, all hoping to view a launch as the program winds down.

Discovery’s mission will last nearly two weeks and coincide with the 29th anniversary of the first shuttle flight on April 12. Three days later, President Barack Obama will visit the Cape Canaveral area to outline his post-shuttle plans for NASA. Obama already has canceled NASA’s follow-up moon program.

This is expected to be the last shuttle launch in darkness. Discovery was supposed to fly two weeks ago, which would have meant an afternoon liftoff. But unusually cold weather over the winter stalled launch preparations and drove the flight into the wee hours. Poindexter and his crew will work the graveyard shift in orbit.

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman called her “a Speaker for the ages” after she ramrodded the national health care reform bill through the House of Representatives. “The most powerful woman in American history,” declared The Economist.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
on Thursday condemned vandalism and threats of violence against members of Congress who voted for sweeping health care change, saying such behavior “must be rejected.”

She told a news conference Thursday that “I don’t want this to be a distraction,” but also said that such actions have “no place in a civil debate in our country.” She vowed not to let incidents of vandalism and hate-mongering distract the work of Congress.

At least four Democratic offices in New York, Arizona and Kansas were struck and at least 10 members of Congress have reported some sort of threats, including obscenity-laced phone messages, congressional leaders have said. No arrests have been reported.

Pelosi spoke to reporters shortly after Republican House members went to the floor to plead with those who oppose the Democratic health care plan to refraim from violence and threats.

Opposition to the health care bill that President Barack Obama
signed into law is “no excuse for bigotry, threats or acts of vandalism and I condemn such things in the strongest possible terms,” said Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, the House’s third-ranked Republican.

“Some of our colleagues have received threatening phone calls. A brick has been thrown, a window has been smashed. This is not the right way to respond,” added Rep. Joseph Pitts, R-Pa., a leading anti-abortion lawmaker.

Said Pelosi: “From it’s origins, our country has had a lively debate.

But it is also important for us to be able to express ourselves freely, not to diminish that in any way, but also to hit a standard that says some of the actions … must be rejected.”

The California Democrat said she did not mean her criticism to “paint everyone with what has happened here with the same brush.”

And she said, “I don’t subscribe to the theory that these acts sprang from the comments of my colleagues.”

But Pelosi also said, “I think we have to manage this issue very carefully, recognizing we are a democracy. We do not want to stifle debate, or free expression of it.”

She will be turning 70 tomorrow.

The No. 2 Senate Democrat accused Republicans Wednesday of refusing to accept the finality of health care changes, a day after President Barack Obama signed the most sweeping medical system remake since Medicare.

“This is a political exercise for too many on the other side of the aisle,” said Sen. Dick Durbin. “We’re going to tell our people back home, ‘It’s time to govern. It’s time to lead.’ ”

Durbin appeared Wednesday on a nationally broadcast interview show with South Carolina’s Jim DeMint, who had said last year he believed the health care overhaul would turn out to Obama’s “Waterloo.”

“America doesn’t want a broken presidency,” countered Durbin, D-Ill.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats moved to hasten debate of the budget reconciliation bill on Wednesday morning and to pivot toward a marathon series of votes on amendments to the bill, which includes final revisions to the big health care legislation.

Debate on a reconciliation measure is limited to 20 hours, but senators are allowed unlimited amendments, which can be voted on during the debate or after it ends. Votes do not take time off the clock.

On Wednesday morning the majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, yielded back the remaining general debate time controlled by the Democrats, leaving about 7 hours and 25 minutes. Republicans agreed to split that time equally.

That means, absent any long breaks or votes, general debate could end at about 5 p.m. At that point, an exercise known in Senate parlance as “vote-o-rama” would begin.

The remarkable change in political fortunes thrust Obama into a period of uncertainty and demonstrated the ability of one person to control the balance of power in Washington. On Jan. 19, that person seemed to be Brown. But as the next 61 days would show, culminating in Sunday night’s historic vote, the fate of the legislation ultimately rested in the hands of Obama.

President Obama will sign sweeping health care reform legislation into law at the White House on Tuesday, according to two Democratic officials familiar with the planning.

Obama also will hit the road to sell the measure to a still-skeptical public, giving a speech Thursday in Iowa City, Iowa, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said. Obama launched his grass-roots drive for health care reform in Iowa City in May 2007, according to Gibbs.

The bill, which constitutes the biggest expansion of federal health care guarantees in more than four decades, passed the House of Representatives late Sunday night with no Republican support. It was approved by the Senate in December.

A separate compromise package of changes also passed the House on Sunday and still needs to be approved by the Senate. The officials noted that the Senate cannot begin debate on the package before Obama signs the underlying bill into law.

What will health care reform mean to you?

Passage of the bill was a huge boost for Obama, who made health care reform a domestic priority. Aides said Monday that Obama exchanged handshakes, hugs and “high-fives” with staffers when the outcome of the House vote became apparent.

“I haven’t seen the president so happy about anything other than his family since I’ve known him,” said senior adviser David Axelrod, adding that Obama’s jubilation Sunday night exceeded his election victory in November 2004. “He was excited that night, but not like last night.”

Republicans promised to continue fighting the reforms, with 11 state attorneys general — all Republican — planning lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the bill’s mandate for people to buy health insurance and requirements for states to comply with its provisions.

Senior Republicans in Congress warned that voters will judge Democrats harshly in November’s midterm elections, with Sen. John McCain of Arizona saying the Democratic-passed bill killed any chance of bipartisan support on legislation for the rest of the year.

“There will be no cooperation for the rest of this year,” McCain said in an interview with KFYI radio in Arizona. “They have poisoned the well in what they have done and how they have done it.”

Highlights of what’s in the bill

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, however, said the administration expects to win any lawsuits filed against the bill, and he challenged McCain and other Republicans to campaign for the November election against benefits of the health care bill such as tax credits for small businesses and an end to insurance company practices such as denying coverage for pre-existing conditions.

The overall $940 billion plan is projected to extend insurance coverage to roughly 32 million additional Americans.

Most Americans will now be required to have health insurance or pay a fine. Larger employers will be required to provide coverage or risk financial penalties. Lifetime coverage limits will be banned, and insurers will be barred from denying coverage based on gender or pre-existing conditions.

The compromise package would add to the bill’s total cost partly by expanding insurance subsidies for middle- and lower-income families. The measure would scale back the bill’s taxes on expensive insurance plans.

House Democrats are expected to celebrate passage of the bill at a news conference with reform advocates Tuesday afternoon. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who spearheaded her husband’s failed health reform effort in the 1990s, said earlier in the day that Obama’s success was an example of the president’s tenacity.

“If you ever doubt the resolve of President Obama to stay with a job, look at what we got done for the United States last night when it came to passing quality affordable health care for everyone,” Clinton said during a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

In the homestretch of the health care debate, one obvious question being asked across the capital is whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi will find 216 votes to pass the bill. For a group of particularly jittery Democrats, the better question may be this: Who will be allowed to slip away?

Yes, the 11th-hour vote tallying is under way at a brisk pace in offices from Capitol Hill to the West Wing, with Ms. Pelosi and her lieutenants keeping hour-by-hour tabs on wavering Democrats.

But as the week inches along, with momentum steadily building to a Sunday vote, the party leaders are also beginning to decide which politically endangered lawmakers will be given absolution to vote no.

“Every vote around here is a heavy lift,” Ms. Pelosi told reporters Thursday.

House Democratic leaders added another key vote Friday morning, with Rep. John Boccieri (D-Ohio) switching from “no” to “yes” on the health care overhaul.

The move was not unexpected; House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) had predicted Boccieri would vote “yes” in a recent television interview.

Boccieri said that the story of Natoma Canfield, a cancer-stricken Ohio woman without health insurance highlighted by President Barack Obama, reminded him of his own family’s health issues.

“I remember standing at the foot of my mother’s bed when she told me she had breast cancer,” the freshman lawmaker said. “Thank God she had health insurance.”

Boccieri said that 39,000 residents of his district do not have health insurance and 9,800 have pre-existing conditions and will benefit from the bill.

“If in this job I can save one life … this job is worth it,” he said. “There are too many politicians worried about their future” and which party will control the House of Representatives, Boccieri said.

That point has been underscored repeatedly this week as on-the-fence lawmakers make their decisions. It has become such a vote-by-vote game that the White House began sending out alerts to reporters each time a Democrat agreed to support the legislation.

But each development, in fact, has a larger meaning.

And with every addition to the yes column, another Democrat potentially gets a pass. Representative Bart Gordon of Tennessee, who had been steadfastly opposed to the legislation, announced Thursday that he intended to support the bill. Mr. Gordon is retiring this year, so his vote to pass the measure does not necessarily mean that Democrats will get 217 votes, but rather it may let another Democrat off the hook.

By this point in the yearlong drama, nearly all lawmakers who remain undecided represent politically tough districts. So that fact alone is not enough for Ms. Pelosi to grant a pass.

But inside the speaker’s suite of offices on the West Front of the Capitol where Democrats are filing in for face-to-face discussions with party leaders, there is a pecking order for vulnerable lawmakers that helps determine the degree of arm-twisting and pressure imposed on them.

Who won by the smallest margin? Which districts have smaller black populations, a traditionally reliable vote? Who voted for the somewhat different version of the legislation in November and is going to be attacked by Republicans for that vote regardless of what they do this weekend? And who stands the best chance to persevere through a roiling political year and by November have at least a decent shot of winning?

Another sign that Democrats are reducing the pressure among Democrats was the latest campaign from Organizing for America, the arm of the Democratic National Committee, which by Thursday was urging activists to turn their attention to persuading centrist Republicans to support the legislation. Some party leaders said they were seeking to avoid agitating Democrats, some of whose votes they still need.

The intrigue surrounding the health care vote has captivated both sides of the Capitol and much of Washington, where the latest vote tally has—for a moment, at least—become nearly as popular as the N.C.A.A. championship basketball brackets.

“It’s pretty clear now that this is no longer an argument between Republicans and Democrats,” said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader. “It’s an argument between Democrats and their own constituents.”

House Democrats wary of the Senate health care bill find themselves in a quandary.

Now that the Senate parliamentarian has made clear to Democrats that they won’t be able to take the path they had considered to get a health care bill passed, they must ask themselves: If we vote for the Senate’s bill, do we trust the senators to make the changes they say they will?

Hoping to prod health-care legislation toward the finish line this week, President Barack Obama pitched his overhaul proposal in Ohio Monday, saying the debate over health care transcends politics.

“In the end, this debate is about far more than the politics,” Obama said in remarks prepared for delivery in Strongsville, Ohio. “It’s about what kind of country we want to be.”

The House of Representatives is expected to vote later in the week on health legislation. While the White House has expressed confidence that the measure will pass, it is still unclear if it can convince enough wavering Democrats.

Obama repeated his call for a “final up-or-down vote” on an effort that could shape the remainder of his presidency. He again rejected Republican calls to scrap the pending proposal, referring to Natoma Canfield, an Ohio woman who complained in a letter to the president that her insurance premiums were rising at a pace she couldn’t afford.

“When you hear people say ’start over’–I want you to think of Natoma,” Obama said. “When you hear people saying that this isn’t the ‘right time’–think of what she’s going through. When you hear people talk about who’s up and who’s down in the polls, instead of what’s right or what’s wrong for the country, think of her and the millions of responsible people–working people–being hurt by today’s system of health insurance. And I want you to remember: There but for the grace of God go I.”

The White House chose to hold Monday’s rally in Strongsville to highlight Canfield’s situation. Canfield, however, couldn’t attend the event because she was diagnosed with leukemia on Saturday.

“I’m here because of Natoma,” Obama said.

President Barack Obama is turning up the heat on the nation’s health insurers as he tries to rally support for his overhaul legislation.

He has criticised insurance firms for denying coverage to some and raising rates for their remaining customers.

The attack comes as he engages in a last push to have Congress adopt his proposals to reform America’s mostly-private healthcare system.

Healthcare has been a priority for Mr Obama but the legislation has been blocked by the Republican minority.

More than 40 million Americans lack health insurance.

Mr Obama said insurers calculated that it was more profitable to drop sick customers and raise rates for the remaining ones.

“Every year, they drop more people’s coverage when they’re sick and need it most. Every year, they raise premiums higher and higher,” he said to an audience at Arcadia University in the suburbs of Philadelphia.

“When is the right time for health insurance reform? I think it is right now.”

The White House wants Congress to pass the president’s proposals before he leaves on an Asia trip on 18 March and before the Congressional Easter recess at the end of the month.

He repeated his call for Congress to vote by a simple majority on the latest version of his $950B plan to cover uninsured Americans and lower premiums.

He said the proposed reforms had incorporated the best ideas from the Democrats and the Republicans.

Both chambers of Congress have passed healthcare bills, but they now need to pass a unified version of the legislation for the president to sign it into law.

The Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives but no longer have the 60-seat majority required to defeat blocking tactics by Republicans.

Mr Obama wants the House to pass the Senate version of the bill plus some changes to issues that have concerned House Democrats.

It is unclear if the proposals have the support of enough House Democrats to succeed in a mid-term election year in which healthcare is a controversial issue.

Republicans say the president’s proposals would lead to higher taxes and massive government involvement in healthcare.

Mr Obama said his plan would reform insurance so sick people could not be dropped by insurers and that people with pre-existing conditions would be covered; insurance would be affordable; and growing healthcare costs would be kept in check.

President Barack Obama is trying to revive his stalled national health care overhaul by taking the fight to the private insurance companies.

The Obama administration will propose legislation that would allow the government to block excessive rate hikes by health insurance companies, a senior administration official said.

The official could not speak on the record because the White House has not formally announced the proposal.

The proposal would give the federal Health and Human Services Department–in conjunction with state authorities–the power to deny egregious premium increases, roll them back, or demand rebates for consumers, said a White House official, speaking Sunday on condition of anonymity because details have not yet been officially released.

Word of the administration plan comes as the White House was to unveil President Obama’s latest health insurance reform proposal at 10 a.m. ET Monday.

The United States is the only developed nation that does not have a comprehensive national health care plan for all its citizens. Many people rely on private insurance plans.

The House of Representatives and Senate have passed their own versions of health care reform. The new Obama plan is expected to attempt to smooth the differences.

Obama will propose changes that include eliminating the so-called “Nebraska deal,” a provision worked in by Sen. Ben Nelson, a Nebraska Democrat, that exempts that state from paying increased Medicaid expenses, the official said.

Recent insurance premium hikes of as much as 39 per cent sought by Anthem Blue Cross in California have given Mr. Obama a new argument for his sweeping health care reforms, now stalled in Congress.

The president also plans to include a series of measures proposed by Republicans to eliminate waste, fraud and abuse.

His proposal also introduces a new provision to prevent arbitrary insurance rate hikes such as a recent 39 percent increase in California.

That provision incorporates legislation last week introduced by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-California, to protect people from such hikes–a measure that came after the premium increase by Anthem Blue Cross of California, two senior administration officials said.

The proposal also would give the secretary of health and human services new authority to stop private health insurance companies from increasing their premiums, calling on the secretary to work with state regulators to review rate increases and deem them justified or unjustified, according to the officials.

In addition, the proposal would create a Health Insurance Rate Authority–a group of health care experts who would issue an annual report with their assessment on what they would consider reasonable premium increases.

Under the Mr. Obama plan, regulators would create a competitive marketplace for small businesses and people buying their own coverage. The plan would be paid for with a mix of Medicare cuts and tax increases. It would also strip out special Medicaid deals for certain states, while moving to close the Medicare prescription coverage gap and making newly available coverage for working families more affordable.

About 50 million of America’s 300 million people are without health insurance. The government provides Medicaid and Medicare coverage for the poor and elderly, but most Americans rely on private insurance, usually received through their employers. However, not all employers provide insurance and not everyone can afford to buy it on their own. With unemployment rising, many Americans are losing their health insurance when they lose their jobs.